2009 Economic Forecast Recap for Dallas/Fort Worth

Minteer Real Estate Team just attended a local economic conference at the Colleyville Convention Center.  This is an annual event with predictions about the Dallas/Fort Worth real estate market for 2009 that we wanted to share.

Most of the GLOBE (not just the U.S.) will have poor real estate markets this year.  Please remember that real estate is local.   When the prices doubled and tripled in California, Las Vegas and Florida, they didn’t in Texas.  Talking about the nation’s real estate is like talking about the nation’s weather.  If the average national high temperature is going to be 47 degrees today, do I need a coat and gloves when I leave my house in Colleyville?

However, in Dallas/Fort Worth our real estate market should be about like it was in 2004.  This means that 2005, 2006 and 2007 will all have been better years for the local real estate market.  We need to remember that we have been setting sales records every year since the late 1990’s.  2007 was the first year we failed to sell more properties in Northeast Tarrant County, since 1994.  2008 was the second year of declining sales.

Click Here For the Hexter Fair 2009 Economic Forecast Summary

If you will look at the chart (click on the link provided above), NTREIS (North Texas MLS) DOLLAR VOLUME SINCE 2004, you will see something interesting.  2007 started out as the BEST year in Northeast Tarrant County; however, we took a nosedive about Labor Day of 2007.  This was when mortgage loan regulations tightened up.  Buyers with questionable credit histories and other issues could no longer get financing.  When we lend more money than a home is worth (100% financing with the buyer rolling in the closing costs) to people with a proven track record of NOT paying people back (sub-prime lending) and we don’t require that the buyer is able to prove their income, or actually makes enough money to afford the payment (stated- income loans) we are asking for trouble.

I was told that upper management with a major national bank had assumed about 1 in 10 of these loans would fail and that was still profitable.  Unfortunately, about 1 in 5 failed and that coupled with the fact that we started requiring people to have jobs, decent (but not perfect) credit and between 3-5% down less, people are qualified to buy houses.

Uncertainty is a major problem in the market place right now.  Uncertainty keeps buyers and businesses from making large purchases.  It doesn’t matter who you supported in November, Tuesday’s Inauguration was the first step towards certainty.  This will be a good thing.

Interest rates should continue to remain very good this year.  The Treasury Department invested $50 billion to bring down the rates last year.  In the first half of this year, the Federal Reserve will be investing $500 billion.

We know that some parts of the country are hurting.  However, two states had positive job growth in the period of December 2007 through the end of November 2008.  Wyoming added 8,200 jobs and Texas added 221,000 new jobs!  In Dallas/Fort Worth, we added 46,900 new jobs during that time.

Media advertising revenue is down.  We fully expect that we will receive much more doom and gloom from the media in an attempt to keep revenues up.  Just ignore it!

Interest rates are at an all time low.  According to Dana Hinson with Metrocities Mortgage, rates have been below 5%.  If you are thinking about moving or re-financing now is a great time.  Please give us a call and we would love to discuss your options with you.

Do you know of anyone thinking of buying or selling a home?  Please give Minteer Real Estate Team a call at 817-481-8890, with their name and number.   It would be our pleasure to help them. economic